Opponents of HS2 have again claimed that the project will cost significantly more and be delivered significantly later than ministers have admitted.
The new claims come ahead of Thursday’s Autumn Statement, in which chancellor Jeremy Hunt is expected to cut spending on capital projects, and follows hints from minsters that this could include the high speed rail link from London to the Midlands and the North.
Lord Tony Berkely, a longstanding opponent of the project, has released a ‘critique’ by infrastructure cost expert Michael Byng of transport secretary Mark Harper’s statement to Parliament last month, claiming that the project is projected to cost £155bn will be completed up to 12 years late.
In the latest six-monthly report to Parliament, Mr Harper told MPs that the approximate cost range for the elements of the scheme committed to by the Government – phases 1, 2a, and the Western Leg of phase 2b (Crewe to Manchester), but not the shortened phase 2b Eastern Leg – is between £53bn and £71bn at 2019 prices.
According to Mr Byng’s analysis, citing sources and 'whistleblowers' within the project, the current cost is expected to be £155bn at 2022 prices.
Where Mr Harper stated that the forecast date for initial services from Birmingham to Old Oak Common remains within the range of 2029 to 2033, Mr Bing pointed out that this does not include anticipated delays ‘arising from the inability of HS2 Limited to find solution to several major problems’.
These include identifying a safe, affordable buildable route for the tunnels from Old Oak Common to Euston and completing an approved design for the redeveloped London Euston Station, Mr Byng said. He put the projected date for service from Euston to Birmingham at 2035.
Mr Harper said that Phase 2a (West Midlands to Crewe) remains on track to be delivered between 2030 and 2034 and the opening date range for phase 2b Western Leg, remains 2035 to 2041.
Mr Byng put the projected date for these at 2040 and 2045 respectively, with 2045 also cited as the projected date for the shortened Eastern Leg of phase 2b.
In a paper for think tank Policy Exchange, Andrew Gilligan, who was transport adviser to Boris Johnson when he was prime minister and previously mayor of London, argued that cancelling all sections of HS2 where main construction has not yet started, would save around £3bn a year by 2027/8, and £44bn or more in total.
He pointed out that the official benefit cost ratio (BCR) for the scheme is 0.9, i.e. that every £1 spent would achieve benefits worth only 90p, although including ‘wider economic impacts' increases the BCR to 1.1.
